Scope & timezone
Dates are in Pacific Time (PT), window 00:00–23:59 PT on the stated day.
“iPhone 17” includes any model in the iPhone 17 series (e.g., 17, 17 Plus, 17 Pro, 17 Pro Max). If Apple uses a different name (no “iPhone 17” branding), all options resolve No.
Primary sources
Apple Newsroom posts, apple.com product pages, and the U.S. Apple Online Store.
If needed, a consensus of credible outlets directly citing Apple may be used.
Option rules
“iPhone 17 announced Sep 9, 2025?” → Yes if Apple publicly unveils the iPhone 17 series on Sep 9, 2025 PT via an Apple event stream/page or Newsroom post. Otherwise No.
“iPhone 17 preorders Sep 12, 2025?” → Yes if the U.S. Apple Online Store begins accepting completed pre-orders for any iPhone 17 model on Sep 12, 2025 PT (able to add to bag and place order). “Notify me” or pages without checkout do not count. Otherwise No.
“iPhone 17 in stores Sep 19, 2025?” → Yes if U.S. Apple retail stores offer in-store purchase or pickup for any iPhone 17 model on Sep 19, 2025 PT. First-day U.S. deliveries arriving on Sep 19 also qualify. Otherwise No.
Notes / edge cases
Carrier/reseller availability alone does not qualify unless it matches Apple’s own retail/online availability above.
Each option resolves independently as soon as its condition is verified.
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@predyx_markets I kinda wish Manifold was better at small probability events. There is probably a nonzero chance that sometime, Apple misses the mark on something like this due to technical or operational issues, international chaos, whatever.
@Eliza you could leverage any small prob event by setting it as a conditional on some small random prob, something like, "Given I roll 20 with a d20 [or 100 with d100, etc.], will this low prob event happen?" resolve N/A if the die roll fails. Not perfect but better than not being able to bet <1% or >99%.
@deagol no, I’m not buying. My old iPhone 14 works fine: :) .
It looks like people are able to pre-order. Will resolve it to yes.
@deagol Thanks resolved "announced", for the pre-orders and in-stores, lets wait as there could be last minute changes.
Announce and preorders seem to be on the specific date not before or after.
In store seems different: If in store before and also on 19 Sept the option wording seems to say it resolves yes.
However, scope and timezone say "on the stated day". So maybe a little confusing Was there supposed to be a "for the first time" or something similar in the option wording?
@predyx_markets