When will SpaceX land on the moon?
โž•
Plus
29
แน€11k
2033
40%
>= 2032
18%
2029
16%
2031
12%
2030
10%
2028
3%
2027
1%
Before 2027

Crewed landing.

  • Update 2025-11-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If SpaceX does not land on the moon by 2032, this market will resolve to ">= 2032" (even if SpaceX never lands on the moon).

#Space
#SpaceX
#Space exploration
#Moon
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opened a แน€250 >= 2032 YES at 35% order

If SpaceX doesn't land on the moon by 2032, does this resolve to ">= 2032" (even if e.g. SpaceX never lands on the moon)?

@FlorisvanDoorn Yes correct!

Is this about a crewed landing, or does the HLS demo count? Based on the votes I'd expect the latter, but it's good to be clear about it.

@Mqrius Crewed landing.

@predyx_markets Oof. That's bad. Cos all the votes have assumed differently.

sold แน€46 2027 NO

Fixed the probabilities but there's gonna be unhappy people

nm. Apparently I just can't read.

Isn't there an option missing for 2027?

@dp9000 Yes, thanks for pointing out. If everyone/betters agrees, I can change it to "In or before 2027"

@predyx_markets I agree.

@predyx_markets yes, or maybe rename the "after 2032" option and use that for 2027, before anybody bets on it. Because if you just extend the "before 2027" to also include 2027, the people who already bet NO might be unhappy.

@dp9000 Great suggestion! Changed "after 2032" to "2027"

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