Who will overtake Gemini 2.5 pro when?
7
Ṁ10202026
1D
1W
1M
ALL
25%
Anthropic by 2025/10
34%
Anthropic by 2025/11
41%
Anthropic by 2025/12
66%
Anthropic by 2026/01
20%
OpenAI by 2025/10
26%
OpenAI by 2025/11
41%
OpenAI by 2025/12
71%
OpenAI by 2026/01
27%
Other by 2026/01
39%
Other by 2026/04
41%
Other by 2026/07
27%
xAI by 2025/10
28%
xAI by 2025/11
41%
xAI by 2025/12
71%
xAI by 2026/01
Overtaking refers having a lower rank (not a higher elo!) on https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text a month after model release. If a company releases a model that overtakes Gemini 2.5 pro, all options after release date will resolve YES and options before or on release date resolve NO. I will use the criteria that the link loads to on the lmarena leaderboard and PT for release dates. "Other" refers any model not released by Google, Anthropic, OpenAI, or xAI.
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