By what percentage will using AI slowdown/speedup developers in the second METR study?
4
Ṁ802026
1D
1W
1M
ALL
38%
Speedup, below -5%
10%
-5% to 0%
7%
0% to +5%
7%
+5% to +10%
7%
+10% to +15%
11%
+15% to +20%
14%
Slowdown, above +20%
7%
+19% slowdown on average was observed in the first METR RCT study published in July 2025: "Measuring the Impact of Early-2025 AI on Experienced Open-Source Developer Productivity"
The spirit of this market is to compare both studies apples-to-apples. Hopefully METR will officially tell us what the second study's equivalent percentage figure is, that can be directly compared with the first study's +19%. If not, this market will resolve N/A.
The bounds are left inclusive and right exclusive except for "+15% to +20%", in which right is also inclusive.
If no second study is published before 1st August 2026 this market will resolve N/A.
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