When will there be people living permanently on mars?
When will there be people living permanently on mars?
Plus
14
Ṁ5642261
1D
1W
1M
ALL
2%
before 2030
8%
2030-2039
18%
2040-2059
26%
2060-2099
27%
2100-2179
4%
2180-2260
14%
>2260
h/t alexey guzey
resolves positively when there are at least 2 people who live permanently (i.e. with the intention to stay there for the rest of their lives) on the planet Mars. i'll answer questions in the comments.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.Related questions
Will humans establish a permanent colony in Mars by 2040?
33% chance
When will a (living) human first set foot on Mars?
2039
When will a human land on the Mars?
Will there be >100 humans living on Mars in 2050?
27% chance
Will there be >100 humans living on Mars in 2063?
47% chance
In what year will a human walk on Mars?
In what year will a human walk on Mars?
2035
When will the first humans land on Mars?
2040
When will a human first set foot on Mars?
When will the first humans set foot on Mars?