Follow-up: /singer/will-one-of-these-ai-researchers-cl
I want to establish who Manifold thinks are the top 10 most important living and active AI/ML researchers. This poll market closes in just a week.
UPDATE:
The 10 winners will be selected from this poll:
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ734 | |
| 2 | Ṁ663 | |
| 3 | Ṁ507 | |
| 4 | Ṁ430 | |
| 5 | Ṁ216 |
@JonasVollmer are you suggesting that not enough answers were on the poll, or that the poll format is overly restrictive?
@JonasVollmer I don’t think that was the problem with the poll, the problem was that each person could only select one option, so rather than “who are the top 10” it was selecting for “who are the 10 most likely to be ranked #1” which is a very different question
so rather than “who are the top 10” it was selecting for “who are the 10 most likely to be ranked #1” which is a very different question
It's not immediately clear to me why these are substantially different in principle. Are you thinking of a problem where not enough people vote, and so the results are determined by chance?
@singer Imagine a room full of 20 democrats and 5 republicans. You give them a list of 100 prominent politicians and ask them who their favorites are. If everyone gets ten votes, the top 10 politicians will probably be democrats. If everyone just gets one vote, you'll probably see a republican politician in second or third place.
@traders If you believe that the resolution criteria change has unfairly hurt you, please DM me with the details and I'll see about reimbursing you.
@Thomas42 Personally that feels like it would defeat the purpose of having the market, especially since all the bets in the market were made under different resolution criteria. It would make more sense to just NA it, which I considered doing, but I expected fewer complaints this way.
In any case, I've changed things up too much already. This is how it will be until the market is resolved.
@singer There won't be enough responses in the poll to meaningfully reflect people's opinion. If we could each choose 10 options in the poll, it would be more meaningful. Right now I'm simply voting for the one researcher I have shares for.
@Primer Percentages will still break ties, so there's no concern over ambiguity. I'll do my best to boost the poll. If you would like a reimbursement, please DM me. Thank you for being patient.
@traders Your vote on this poll would be appreciated: /singer/which-resolution-criteria-is-best-f
UPDATE:
See the new resolution poll here /singer/who-of-these-20-is-the-most-importa
@singer lol, I voted for the poll, but I didn't realize it would be 'vote for 1'. I absolutely would have voted differently 😂
@DavidFWatson Yeah, the poll format not giving an option for N-votes-per-voter is unfortunate. I wish that I knew a way around it.
@singer You could have made say 3 polls and asked ppl to pick their 2nd and 3rd, and then summed them
