@skibidist sometimes info of this type is released to the public after the resolution of the episode , so even if it happens, it won't appear immediately. Maybe prolonging the resolution date to let's say 31 JUN 2026 or 31 DEC 2026 (while keeping everything else same, it has to happen by 31 DEC 25 etc) can at least raise the sensitivity of the question ?

Also, how you will decide if the hospitalization was for psychiatric disturbances, and not necessarily in "mental institution". Would a hospitalization due to psychiatric condition in "non-mental" health institution would be considered as yes?

Consider the example in https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/21/arts/music/kanye-west-hospitalized-exhaustion.html

nytimes.com

@3d Any psychiatric ward or similar will count as a mental institution for the purpose of this market.

I think it would be unfair to current traders to extend the date this much, but I will wait at least two weeks after close before resolving (more if there are grounds to expect a news coming up).

There is no way to confirm this... Usually short mental inpatient sessions are private

@TiredCliche I don't think a short session would suffice here

@skibidist the vast majority of mental health hospitalizations are under a week in the US, if you're only talking about longer than a week then that really reduces the likelihood.

@TiredCliche I mean a short stay doesn't cut it given the size of his problems (attempt at humor).

For the market, any stay is fine. It is implicit that you need to multiply the probability of hospitalization by the probability that it comes to light.

@skibidist Just making it a bit more explicit.

Probably too rich