How many launches will there be before Starship is recovered (3-13)
Mini
10
Ṁ319
2033
81%
chance

Resolves to ((num launches - 3) * 10)%, including the launch that the recovery happens on.

3 launches - 0%

4 launches - 10%

5 launches - 20%

6 launches - 30%

7 launches - 40%

8 launches - 50%

9 launches - 60%

10 launches - 70%

11 launches - 80%

12 launches - 90%

≥ 13 launches - 100%

If it falls off the barge after landing, the recovery has failed. If the project is canceled before 13 attempts, resolves 100%.

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Launch count will be based on the List of Starship launches on Wikipedia.

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): A failed recovery includes if Starship falls out of the chopsticks or similar catching mechanisms, not just barge landings.

  • Update 2025-08-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Launch counting is anchored to the Wikipedia "List of Starship launches" as it existed at market creation.

    • The first counted launch is April 20, 2023 (IFT-1); future edits adding earlier hops will not change this starting point.

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So this counts launches that don't have the starship itself on top as well, so the chaser launches etc. I assume thus because the wikipedia launch page lists the early ones too that didn't have it on top. Nevermind. I figured I don't know what the heck I am talking about...

@JussiVilleHeiskanen where on the page do you see that?

In case it is edited, at time of market creation the list counted April 20, 2023 as the first launch. Even if the list is edited in the future to include early hops, we’ll start counting there (which matches general community consensus)

@spider Sorry, I completely misread the page. ignore. I am totally out of my depth here.

Just to be clear, the plan for Starship is to catch it with the chopsticks. No barge landing is planned.

Same resolution criteria applies: falling out of the chopsticks - or anything along those lines - is a failed recovery.

sold Ṁ3 YES

for any ambiguity around hops, etc, numbering is based on this list
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Starship_launches

bought Ṁ70 YES

I'm assuming you mean ≥ 13, not less

@Mqrius 🤦‍♂️ edited, thanks.

Does a splashdown into the ocean and recovering from the water count?

predicts YES

@OnixarLilen interesting one. I feel like the correct thing to say that it does count, only if at the time it's believed that this is the pathway to reuse. If they're just doing a splashdown for 1-off early tests without ever intending to solve the problems around refurbishing after salt water, that's a no.

Does that feel fair to you?

Is this the second stage or is recovering booster of any relevance?

predicts YES

@ChristopherRandles just the second stage (starship), booster (super heavy) isn't a part of this market.