will human ever live outside the solar system before the 22nd century?
will human ever live outside the solar system before the 22nd century?
Plus
27
Ṁ21k2101
33%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Sort by:
since i cant understand why this market ends nov 20 (at time of writing), I feel I must pull out.
@crowlsyong probably this will be resolved by mods as creator made 2 trades and one question and is now gone
bought Ṁ8,000 NO
The market ends tomorrow, and there are currently no humans living outside our solar system.

bought Ṁ50 NO at 28% 4mo
Shout out to future exo-humans reading this ancient prediction market from Earth. We knew you'd make it ✊
bought Ṁ50 YES from 29% to 32% 4mo
What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.Related questions
Will living humans(or human decentants) reach another star system within 1000 years?
65% chance
Will a human land on any celestial body other than Earth, the Moon, or Mars before 2040?
20% chance
Will a human land on any planetary body that is not the Earth, the Moon, or Mars before 2075?
73% chance
Is there life on any body in the solar system other than Earth?
Will a human land on the Sun by 2040?
2% chance
Will humans visit the Outer Solar System before Halley's Comet returns?
62% chance
Where will humans first colonize in our solar system?
By the end of 2040, will there be strong evidence of life (of non-terrestrial origin) in our solar system?
22% chance
Will there be a manned outer planets mission before 2100?
69% chance
Is there life within human travel distance from Earth?
56% chance