🏖️What will happen in August 2025? [ADD RESPONSES]
Mini
47
Ṁ2424
Sep 1
99%
Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive during the entire month
99%
Sam Altman still CEO through end of month
99%
NASDAQ hits an all time high
98.8%
Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%
95%
noam chomsky alive until end of month
94%
dick cheney still alive at end of month
81%
at least 3 xkcd comics with no stick figures in it
69%
web3isgoinggreat has at least 20 posts this month
69%
nyc receives 3 or more inches of rain
60%
trump posts on twitter/x ten or more times
60%
earthquake 7.0+ magnitude
59%
EF3+ Rated Tornado Impacts the US
54%
starship launch
50%
$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month
50%
spacex launches 15 or more rockets
49%
large tech company announces layoffs by my judgement
46%
Donald Trump mentions Obama's birth certificate
32%
twitter/x banned in another country (announced, even if it can be circumvented)
31%
silksong game release date announced

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

  • Update 2025-07-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A playable demo will not be considered a release. To resolve an answer YES, it must be more than a demo and not an early access version.

  • Update 2025-08-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to questions about ambiguity in the answer 'nVidia becomes the largest company...', the creator has stated that this answer might be resolved to N/A.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Sort by:
NASDAQ hits an all time high
bought Ṁ57 NASDAQ hits an all t... YES

@strutheo https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/07/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
The Nasdaq Composite jumped 0.98% for a record close of 21,450.02. The tech-heavy index hit a fresh all-time intraday high earlier in the day.

bought Ṁ20 Answer #zuC529uQ5A YES

@strutheo does Claude Opus 4.1 count?

@strutheo It is now larger than any other company ever has been. Is that enough to resolve yes?

Notes:
Does it have to "become" i.e be not largest company ever at some point in August then later become largest? i.e it has to shrink to being smaller than another company's record first in order to later grow and "become" largest?

Alternately Is beating its own record sufficient to say it "becomes" largest in August? Record on 30 July 2025 has not been beaten in August (not yet anyway).

I see a few possible interpretations:
Be largest co by market cap in Aug
Become largest company ever in Aug and BTW metric is market cap
Become largest by market cap in Aug.

It doesn't seem impossible that all could become true in August and the question is unambiguously true. If some tests pass and some don't then it is a bit confusing.

What happens in other future months?

@ChristopherRandles it was copied from an old example yeah. I might need to na...

bought Ṁ200 Answer #Zyg0SdsEA0 YES

@JussiVilleHeiskanen @strutheo
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0r7qlwg4zro
Russian volcano erupts for first time in more than 500 years

@strutheo
Does a playable demo being obtainable count as a release?

bought Ṁ20 Answer #8y0tEPQRsq NO

@strutheo silksong
https://www.polygon.com/news/616781/hollow-knight-silksong-demo-xbox-gamescom
which might mean a release date of 20 Aug is known now so not in Aug.
While the release date might be in Aug?

But quite possibly it needs to be a full release and playable demo does not count.

@ChristopherRandles oh no i dont think thats a realease, just a demo. its not even early access