🗳️Who would Manifold vote for over both Trump AND Biden/Kamala in 1-on-1 presidential elections? [ADD RESPONSES]
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Plus
113
Ṁ19k
2026
98%
Julia Galef
96%
Zvi Mowshowitz
96%
Scott Alexander
95%
Paul Christiano
94%
Randall Munroe
93%
Josh Shapiro
92%
Jon Stewart
91%
Peter Singer
91%
Dwarkesh Patel
90%
Gretchen Whitmer
89%
Michelle Obama
88%
Eliezer Yudkowsky
87%
Spencer Greenberg
87%
Sam Wendover
85%
Tammy Duckworth
84%
Kamala Harris
82%
Emmanuel Macron
81%
Andrew Yang
78%
Jared Polis

Must be a REAL LIVING PERSON that the majority of Manifold users think can defeat both Biden in a 1-1 election, and Trump in a 1-1 election.

Will be resolved by a poll for each option to decide if they'd win the mock election(s)

Inspired by @GG 's market: /GG/is-there-anyone-who-could-defeat-bi

Get Ṁ1,000 play money
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Is this a forever market or is it closing soon?

@Chumchulum There are definitely options that should resolve N/A or 50% as per the market description.

i hv to make a lot of polls some day lol

@strutheo Will the market reopen after each batch of polls to continue until the next batch is resolved?

@Chumchulum no open whole time

@strutheo or maybe i should just close it and then make polls.. hmm

@chaos Brilliant but unqualified due to citizenship (he's a natural-born Canadian and a naturalized Brit).

@KarlK Wouldn't stop me from voting for him.

Randall Munroe

@Lorxus Randall Munroe doesn’t think he would be a good president:

https://xkcd.com/2962/

Hunter Biden ☠ ☠

reposted

debate bump now that everyone wants to replace biden, add some ideas! (real people only)

You just independently discovered Condorcet Voting lol

Just jumping into this comment section to say how much I miss Julia's content and her careful, considered approach to everything.

bought Ṁ10 Answer #6v4zx61rjh YES

Julia Galef? Did she die or something?

bought Ṁ10 Answer #e79e84a63d87 YES

bought Ṁ50 Josh Shapiro YES

Ah I didn't see it had to be a real person, you can N/A my fictional submissions

reposted

bump

sold Ṁ40 Answer #17a9b284a8a4 NO

I am selling my investment before the value of Mana is decreased to a tenth of its current value on May 1 2024.

No clue where this one will land

Scott Alexander doesn't even understand correlation vs. causation and supply curve shifts vs. movement along a supply curve.

@Shkeonk Could you elaborate?

thinking of instantly disqualifying any candidate that lost their poll election vs trump if i did it already, since that should logically follow. wyt

@strutheo By N/A-ing them or by resolving them NO ?

He’s a real living person so he qualifies. That was easy to establish thanks to the fact that

You know the rules, and so do I

@Mich certainly eligible, forget the citizenship

@strutheo Knew you wouldn’t let me down