Chomsky is 95, actuarial tables give a 95 year old a 28% chance of dying in the next year (https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html)
There’s about a third of a year left til Jan 1, so assuming that 28% is evenly distributed through the year, let’s call it 28%/3 = 9% chance of death by Jan 1.
Chomsky did suffer a stroke but is still kicking two months later. Not a good sign but he is educated and rich which counts against him dying. And most 95 year olds probably have health scares so it’s partly baked into base rates. I’d say 3:2 odds ratio in favour of dying relative to base rates. Then overall odds of (9:91)*(3:2) = 27:182 or about 13% chance.
So I’d say fair price is 80-85% assuming zero risk free rate.
if you like jimmy and noam you'll love DvD
let me just say i truly hate the person who started the rumor for later claiming her friend's hearsay as ACADEMIC SOURCES and the prewritten obit that came out AFTER her tweet as the news confirming it lmao . and they gained tons of followers off this of course. 🥲
just saw a tweet to the tune of "I hope Noam recovers well enough to read all of the tributes people have posted for him today"
imagine you're 95 and you're recovering from a stroke and your poor family is worried and caring for you and then they have to communicate with the world that you're not actually dead and it's just some bored moron confusing everyone for no reason.
for those who want to know why it jumped, some idiot on twitter started the rumor
I knew that it was going around Twitter and people have circulated fake death notices about him in the past, that's why I waited until it showed up somewhere theoretically checked and reputable but alas. but he had a massive stroke the other day and he's 95!
"Noam Chomsky has not passed away. His wife Valeria has spoken to the editor of Jacobin Brazil."