Will there be another Manifest conference held in 2025?
Will there be another Manifest conference held in 2025?
Plus
65
Ṁ16k2026
98%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
NA or 50% if they run another in 2024 instead
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Sort by:
@Joshua on the one hand, there are many reasons to expect there might not be a manifest in 2025 (timing, finances, lighthaven, etc), & james knows that as well as anyone.
OTOH, the golden rule is to inverse all bets made by manifold staff about the future of manifold, so this is a bullish signal imo
2 traders bought Ṁ15 YES 10mo
what if the 3rd manifest is held in 2024? (not trying to be too pedantic here, the last manifest was ~9 months ago so you could imagine them deciding it becomes an every 6-9 months thing)
na/ 50 percent idk
@strutheo I agree with @Ziddletwix, would be nice if you could clarify. I mean, just write it in the description, but your answer is pretty useless for traders and keep people (aka me 🙃) away from trading on your question.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with 
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.Related questions
Will the Manifest conference reoccur in 2025?
99% chance
When will Manifest 2025 take place?
Will there be another Manifest next year?
92% chance
Will there be a news article about Manifest 2025?
70% chance
Will there be a manifest in june of 2026?
43% chance
Will there be a manifest in july of 2026?
38% chance
Will 2024 be the final Manifest?
1% chance
Will @StochasticParrot attend a Manifest in 2025?
49% chance
Will Manifest 2025 tickets sell out?
29% chance
Which users will attend a Manifest in 2025? [ADD RESPONSES]