Resolution Criteria

A “US recession” is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Advance Estimate data. The date used for resolution is the first quarter in which the first of the two consecutive negative quarters occurred. Only the BEA’s Advance Estimate is used; later revisions are ignored. Any two consecutive negative values, even -0.1%, qualify as a recession for the purpose of this poll.

Interpretation of Options

• “Before QX YYYY” means the first of the two consecutive negative quarters, per BEA Advance Estimate, is in the quarter immediately before QX YYYY or earlier. For example, “Before Q1 2026” means the first qualifying quarter is in Q4 2025 or earlier. In other words, “Before Q1 YYYY” is not inclusive of Q1 YYYY.

• “Q1 YYYY or later” means the first qualifying quarter is in Q1 YYYY or after.

Interpretation of Quarters

Quarters will be based on the following three-month blocks:

• Q1 = January 1 – March 31

• Q2 = April 1 – June 30

• Q3 = July 1 – September 30

• Q4 = October 1 – December 31

Tie-Breaking

• If no qualifying recession start date occurs before Q1 2030, the market resolves to the “Q1 2030 or later” option immediately after BEA publishes a disqualifying Q4 2029 Advance Estimate.

• No other data sources, market indicators, or economic measures are used for resolution — only the BEA Advance Estimate GDP growth rates.