Will Donald Trump’s approval rating at the end of his second term be at least as low as Joe Biden’s?
Will Donald Trump’s approval rating at the end of his second term be at least as low as Joe Biden’s?
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Based on 538 aggregate approval on January 20 2029 (Trump) vs January 20 2025 (Biden). A suitable replacement aggregator will be found if necessary.
Resolves N/A if either Trump isn’t president on the morning of January 20 2029.
If Trump refuses to leave office the question will still resolve based on his approval rating on January 20.
Tie resolves TRUE.
Biden’s approval rating on Jan 20 2025: 37%
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opened a Ṁ50 NO at 48% order2mo
There is a cult of personality dynamic type thing going on with Trump that was not going on with Biden. He will have to do something really really bad for his approval rating to dip below 37%. Something worse than J6 for sure.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
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