This market resolves YES if Hans Moke Niemann is a top 10 chess player according to FIDE rankings at any point before 2030-01-01 0001UTC. The ratings used will be the standard top 100 open list as worked out with FIDE's database. There is a webpage that collates the top 100 open list here.
In the event of Niemann recieving a FIDE ban lasting longer than 1 year and 1 day for any reason, this market will resolve NO.
In the event of a tie in the rankings, Niemann will be considered to occupy the higher of the tied positions for the purpose of this market.
In the event that FIDE is dissolved or its status as the authoritative global ranking body for chess is significantly challenged, an alternative organization with a similar ranking system will be used for market resolution. This alternative organization must be widely recognized and accepted by a majority of active, professional chess players worldwide. If no such ranking organisation exists, this market will resolve as N/A.
The ranking must be legitimate and not as a result of any obvious error with the database. If the database it not public, a reliable public source will be used.
If at the time of resolution FIDE rankings are still updated monthly, this market will wait until 2030-01-08 for the database update to go live.
@LuisPedroCoelho I agree. I found a lot of liquidity on no around 60% and this is now one of my largest positions. Hans is gifted, but his chess skill is less consistent than his talent for marketing and controversy
@gamedev I even wonder how much his rating is overstated compared to his true skill. He's been climbing the ranks mostly by playing and beating lower rated opponents.
He should be doing what Vicent Keymer is doing, which is trying to get to the next level by competing at truly elite events (but since that fateful Sinquefield Cup, Hans does not get invited). Keymer is struggling for the moment, but he might find his footing and eventually outrank Hans (or not, but Alireza also struggled when he first started playing elite tournaments).