Will I find a single prompt that Grok 4 Heavy does better on than GPT-5? | Manifold

Will I find a single prompt that Grok 4 Heavy does better on than GPT-5?

18

Ṁ199

Aug 19

74%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Prompt has to be found by me, not someone else, and within a week of today.
"better" must be objective/verifiable, not vibes based
any coding question has to come from another model (I can't feed in stuff from chatgpt into chatgpt cause that causes bias...)

#GPT-5 Speculation

#GPT-4 speculation

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I still haven't found one! (tried 10 so far)

I did find one, and I expect just running through various trick questions that have been shown to trip up GPT-5 would hit on one or more that Grok managed to get right.

I tried the first prompt and the two models were pretty much equivalent! its gonna be more competitive than I expected

https://chatgpt.com/canvas/shared/689a391d133c819196fdf06ea561d929

https://grok.com/share/c2hhcmQtMw%3D%3D_eaf16600-c1bd-48fd-88c3-f53a799834b6

How hard are you gonna try?

@digory I will try 10 prompts. I have an open mind about this

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Related questions

Will I be impressed by GPT-5?

Will the performance jump from GPT4->GPT5 be less than the one from GPT3->GPT4?

Will GPT-5 be more competent than me in my area of expertise?

What will be true about GPT-5?

Will I judge GPT-5 to be smarter than o1 (not preview) after both are released?

Will GPT-5 be capable of recursive self-improvement?

Will Mistral-Large be considered on par or better than GPT-5? (text)

What will the aggregate improvement of GPT5 be over GPT4 in terms of metrics?