In this prediction market, we're evaluating the possible influence of the Anti-Corruption Foundation (ACF), founded by Alexey Navalny, on the 2024 presidential votes for Putin, should they participate in anti-Putin campaigning.
Criteria for Market Resolution:
N/A: If the ACF does not publicly instruct supporters to "vote against Putin" or endorse a specific non-Putin candidate by February 17, 2024 (1 month prior to the election date).
YES: If Putin receives less than 64.35% of the votes (his 2012 election result) or vacates the presidency for any reason before the end of 2024.
NO: If neither of the aforementioned scenarios transpire.
There's a counterpart market with the inverse condition, and only one will yield a non-N/A result. This approach aims to determine the potential consequences of the ACF's participation or non-participation on the election results.
Background:
Max Katz, a prominent Russian opposition media personality, advocates for joining hands with other opposition figures, such as the ACF and Khodorkovsky. He advances a "vote against Putin" strategy for the 2024 presidential elections. Given the likelihood that few genuine candidates will be permitted to run, this approach primarily serves as a protest against Putin's leadership. The campaign, mostly online, aims to diminish Putin's vote count, forcing him to resort to vote manipulation and solidifying public perception that he lacks majority support.
However, the ACF remains skeptical. They're wary of Katz's intentions and question the value of forming an opposition coalition. Their primary concern is the potential disillusionment of their supporters. Promoting a campaign with seemingly slim chances of success might demoralize activists and followers. Rather than focusing on elections that may be pre-decided, the ACF believes in the power of unmasking corruption and investing in substantial analytical endeavors. They intend to reserve judgment on their election strategy until more clarity on the 2024 election dynamics emerges.
According to my assessment, ACF instructed individuals to vote against Putin, initiated a campaign encouraging people to appear at voting stations at noon as a form of protest, and was actively engaged. Putin officially received more than 64.35% of the vote. Therefore, unless he vacates the presidency by the end of the year for any reason, I plan to close this market as 'NO'.
Two questions (on this and the second market):
-Why the "vacating the presidency by the end of 2024" condition? How is it related to the main question?
- Why does the market close on February 17, not after the election (or at the end of the year, if that's when you intend to resolve)?
To account for a scenario where Putin fakes the results which causes him to be displaced shortly after. Official vote results are reported by Putin's election committee, so the reported count of votes is not very reliable. In that sense, I would consider anti-Putin vote campaign a success if he gets less votes reported OR if he is forced to vacate the presidency for any reason shortly thereafter.
On Feb 17, I will resolve one of the two markets to N/A. I see little reason to make the other market tradeable afterward. The intent was to gauge how the presence or absense of the anti-Putin campaign can affect the elections. If you are interested in the voting results, I think it makes more sense to create a simpler market without the complicated condition of anti-putin campaign.