Measured as the number of at least level 4 autonomy (SAE) robotaxis on public roads on 1.1. 2029, divided by population of that country.
If there is conflicting or inaccurate data, I will consult traders or create a poll. If the data is lacking, I will resolve n/a.
Level 4 automated vehicles with remote fleet support for assistance (as Waymo, Zoox and others currently use (2025)) count as level 4!
I will not trade in this market.
Update 2025-06-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding privately owned vehicles with level 4 autonomy:
A vehicle with the capability is not automatically counted as a robotaxi.
It will only be counted if it is actually made available for robotaxi usage, such as through an official opt-in program for a ridesharing network.
@traders Proposed update to resolution criteria: so far there is no info on how privately owned robotaxi capable vehicle should be handled.
So far all robotaxi operations are owned by companies which own fleets of vehicles. Since Tesla is starting to work on FSD for robotaxis which could work with privately owned vehicles I think this calls for a clarification.
Scenarios:
1) Tesla enables lvl 4 SAE FSD only for vehicles owned by the company Tesla (if operated by/with Uber, Lyft, whatever doesn't matter). That would clearly be a fleet owned by Tesla which then can be attributed to where they are operating, e.g. right now only USA and therefore count towards the number of robotaxis in the USA.
2) Tesla sells the entire vehicle ownership and/or operation to another company which then owns and operates the robotaxi fleet. This could again easily be counted again
3) Tesla enables FSD on SAE lvl 4 for privately owned vehicles (with the necessary hardware). Then we get into discussion territory. Is a private vehicle which has the software immediately a robotaxi? I'd argue not, since if I count regular taxis I don't count vehicles which could be taxis as well. I'd argue only vehicles which are actually made available for robotaxi usage, count as robotaxis. That could be an opt-in programme for vehicle owners by Tesla itself or ridesharing companies like Uber. If that is the case in 2028 and there is an option for private citizens (or corporations and their work vehicles) to make their own vehicles available for carsharing operations, then I will add these numbers to the their respective countries number. Numbers will hopefully be openly available, if not I will try to find a reasonable guess or range with traders at market end.
@tobiasscheuer I'd recommend to count the number of passengers trips. That should achieve the real goal of the market, shouldn't it?
@SimoneRomeo while yes, that is an interesting metric, I think it would deviate too much from this market's question.
@SimoneRomeo good point, didn't think of them. I mainly pointed out Luxembourg since I've heard they may want to create softly regulated areas for robotaxis