Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve YES if Waymo One becomes publicly available for passenger service in Berkeley, CA before it becomes available in Menlo Park, CA. This market will resolve NO if Waymo One becomes available in Menlo Park first
The market will resolve N/A if:
Waymo expands to both cities at the same time.
Waymo does not expand to either city by Dec 31, 2028
The service must be publicly available to general riders (not just beta testers or employees) to count as "available" in either city.
I lean NO on this market because:
- SFO approval seems to be chugging along, and Waymo is already operational in San Mateo county.
- Waymo seems to only do contiguous areas so far, I'm not sure if crossing the bridge will be a big deal for them.
- Waymo HQ is in Mountain View, I do believe this may induce some bias towards leaning southward.
The top case IMO for YES is: there's a lot of transbay demand, and Berkeley is much closer to SF than Menlo Park.