debate bump

You can't declare a coin flip not to be a coin flip.

Some election outcomes are more likely to occur than others.

True, but I somewhat doubt that for a couple dozen mana people have run Monte Carlo simulations or other methods to estimate the probability of the parity of each scenario including faithless electors.

Oki oki, feel free to bet back to 50%, I have limit order for you 😇

Nah - I haven't run the numbers either 😂 I just guess it's really noisy to have such a big deviation from even odds, but I'm good with betting on it.