Will GPT-5 reach a 1000 rating on Codeforces?
➕
Plus
52
Ṁ32k
Dec 31
98.6%
chance

Resolves YES if GPT-5 is able to gain a rating of 1000 or more in Codeforces; resolves NO otherwise.

GPT-4's rating on Codeforces is 392; GPT-3.5's rating on Codeforces is 260: https://codeforces.com/blog/entry/113910

GPT-5 Capabilities
#️ Technology
#AI
#Technical AI Timelines
#Science
#Programming
#Third Party Validated, Predictive Markets: AI
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
5 Comments
Sort by:

I think Claude 3.5 opus will be able to do so

I assume GPT-5's rating will be evaluated in the same way as GPT-4's and GPT-3.5's was? Just a single prompt with the statement, and out comes the solution. No prompting techniques.

Added this market here because I thought it could be classified as third party validated. https://manifold.markets/group/third-party-validated-predictive-ma-6bab86c0b8b0/questions

Third Party Validated, Predictive Markets: AI
Manifold curated group with 2 members
predicts NO

I think gpt-4 could do well with advanced prompting, but somehow its rating is really low. I think it all comes down to the way openai evaluates it so I put this at like 50%

For context, AlphaCode which was created 1.5 years ago (and which is not very complex and not very expensive) is 1000+. IIRC it was ~1350 when published, and probably a bit less now because the average rating got lower due to some changes in the rating system.

Related questions