By 2027 will Adam be replaced by a novel optimization algorithm?
Plus
28
Ṁ20102027
64%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I am including both Adam and close variants (e.g. AdamW).
To judge it I will look at the top 20 most cited ML papers released that year. If >= 50% of them use a novel optimization algorithm, market resolves YES.
If Adam is replaced by an existing optimization algorithm, or it remains the most common optimization algorithm, market resolves NO.
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Here's one candidate: a meta-optimiser that just won a best paper award at NeurIPS "Gradient Descent: The Ultimate Optimizer" https://openreview.net/forum?id=-Qp-3L-5ZdI
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