Will a single model running on a single consumer GPU (<1.5k 2020 USD) outperform GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks in the original paper by 2025?
Plus
28
Ṁ38762026
86%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
There are no restrictions on the amount or kind of compute used to *train* the model. Question is about whether it will actually be done, not whether it will be possible in theory. If I judge the model to really be many specific models stuck together to look like one general model it will not count.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Sort by:
Llamas on pixel 7s https://github.com/rupeshs/alpaca.cpp/tree/linux-android-build-support (ik ik its not over 13B yet, just sharing progress)
@ValeryCherepanov By "run on a single GPU" I mean the weights + one full input vector can fit on a consumer GPU at once. Otherwise the question would be meaningless - you can always split up matrices into smaller blocks and run the computation sequentially.
Related questions
Related questions
Will a model be trained using at least as much compute as GPT-3 using AMD GPUs before Jan 1 2026?
84% chance
Will it cost less than 100k USD to train and run a language model that outperforms GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks by the end 2024?
85% chance
Will a model as great as GPT-5 be available to the public in 2025?
79% chance
Will a language model that runs locally on a consumer cellphone beat GPT4 by EOY 2026?
72% chance
In what year will a GPT4-equivalent model be able to run on consumer hardware?
2026
In what year will a GPT4-equivalent model be able to run on consumer hardware?
2026
Will a GPT-3 quality model be trained for under $1,000 by 2030?
77% chance
Will any open source LLM with <20 billion parameters outperform GPT-4 on most language benchmarks by the end of 2024?
13% chance
Will a GPT-3 quality model be trained for under $10.000 by 2030?
83% chance
GPT-5 trained with >=24k GPUs?
82% chance