i think it's unlikely that it'll be exactly 90%, because that's a very small bucket, and by the end of 2025 surely it'll move at least a little

@LizLovelace a most wrongful deduction, for april market I asked him and he replied without giving a new number, and for 2024 market he didn't reply. Base rates say he never changes his mind on this.

@warty I still dislike the way the market is structured, because if he moves to 89% that would be a loss for the people who bet on 90, even though they weren't exactly wrong

Why didn't you make a 85-95 bucket?

@Ppau well I care about the event of him not making an update.
When I asked him for the April market, he said "about 90%", which suggests to me he maybe moved slightly and probably towards 0, but by the rules it still resolved 90%. So it's not over for 89%cels