When will Meta release Llama 5?
7
Ṁ584
2027

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Background

Meta’s Llama timeline so far:

  • Llama 1: February 2023

  • Llama 2: July 2023

  • Llama 3: April 2024 (with 3.1, 3.2, 3.3 releases through late 2024)

  • Llama 4: April 5, 2025

Given this roughly annual cadence, we’re testing whether Llama 5 will ship sooner or later.

Thresholds (each resolves YES/NO individually)

Each threshold resolves YES if Meta publicly releases Llama 5 before that date; otherwise it resolves NO as soon as the date passes without a release:

  1. January 1, 2026

  2. July 1, 2026

  3. January 1, 2027

  4. July 1, 2027

  5. January 1, 2028

  • Update 2025-08-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution depends on the model name.

    • Must be a Meta model publicly released with a name that includes "Llama 5" (e.g., "Llama 5 500B").

    • Variants "Llama Five" or "Llama V" also count as Llama 5.

    • Models without this naming (e.g., "NewShinyModel", "Llama New") do not count.

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4 Comments
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@winged_one Does the model need to be called Llama 5 and/or have Llama 5 as a substring in its name, like Llama 5 500B or whatever, or does this market count any major successor of llama 4, no matter what its name is? i'm asking bc of the possibility that they change the naming scheme of their ai models

bought Ṁ10 Answer #NO

fwiw based on the description only referring to llama 5 i'm assuming it needs to be called llama 5 and if they gave up on this naming scheme all options would resolve yes, but since you're trading on the market i'd rather get a clarification as early as possible

@Bayesian The Name has to contain Llama 5 in some way di Llama 5 500B would count while NewShinyModdel or Llama New would not. I would still Something Like Llama Five or Llama V as Llama 5.

@winged_one makes sense ty!

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