Will a movie be made about the missing Titanic explorer?
Will a movie be made about the missing Titanic explorer?
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99
Ṁ15k
2030
67%
chance

Resolves YES if there's a movie about the missing OceanGate submersible by 2030. Resolves NO otherwise.

To be considered a movie for the purposes of this market, the film must meet all of the following criteria:

  1. It's clear the OceanGate submersible (or a fictional analog) that went missing in June 2023 is the primary subject of the film.

  2. It's at least 90 minutes long (including credits). A miniseries of separate episodes that, in total, includes 90+ minutes of content would not be considered a 90+ minute long movie.

  3. It's widely recognized as a serious movie, evidenced by being extremely profitable or well-known, available on a popular streaming service (something like posting on YouTube in the usual sense would not count), shown in theatres, played on cable television, or something else along these lines.

All the criteria must be met by 2030 for the market to resolve YES.

#Movies
#Titanic sub
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21 Comments
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1y
1y

@PlasmaBallin I found more

1y

https://www.theverge.com/2023/9/29/23895953/titan-submersible-film-production

A film about OceanGate’s failed Titan submersible is already in the works
A movie about the Titan submersible’s implosion is in the works. Deadline reports that MindRiot is working on the film, with E. Brian Dobbins serving as producer.
predicts YES 1y

@Predictor I trust that site but I don’t know if I can trust that pfp

predicts NO 1y

It’s already forgotten. Think about how many things get big on Twitter for one week, but never lead to a documentary

predicts YES 1y

100% there will be a documentary about this on Netflix but it’s a coin flip as to whether the length is enough. 90 minutes is a high bar

1y

@JonathanRay Phone Booth is one hell of a movie and doesn't reach 90 minutes.

1y

3. There's a lot of stuff on netflix that isn't recognized as a serious movie so this criterion is kinda self-contradictory. Is being on netflix enough?

1y

@JonathanRay By serious I didn't mean good. Netflix is enough to resolve YES.

1y

my gf loves to watch true-crime and disaster c-list documentaries on netflix while she works. I'm sure this is a big enough story to get one of those eventually

predicts YES 1y

you guys underestimate female market for true crime and disaster movies on netflix

1y

Unlike say the Thai soccer plays in a cave this one doesn't make for a good movie because:

1: No feel good ending where they all survive.

2: they died in a sudden implosion - so the film just ends at that point when that happens - can't unpack interesting elements of it.

3: there's no mystery to speculate about like MH370.

1y

@Daniel_MC does a documentary count as a movie?

1y

@JonathanRay Yup :)

predicts YES 1y
predicts YES 1y
1y

@Mirek im with u

1y

would a fictional story that is clearly inspired by Oceangategate count? consider the following example:


"Seafarer" is a 2025 film by Director Alan Smithee. A corrupt businessman founds an undersea adventure company named "Seafarer's United" and builds a submarine to give tours of the Marianas trench. A brave engineer speaks up about the design, noting critical safety issues, and is silenced by a team of hired thugs shortly before the maiden voyage which goes disastrously wrong. 75% of reviews note the similarity to the 2023 Oceangate incident.

1y

@Adam Good question. I'd say if it's clear to any semi-informed viewer that it's inspired by OceanGate, then the criteria are met and this will resolve YES.

I've added a parenthetical remark to criteria 1 in the description to make things more clear. If anyone disagrees with my answer here let me know.

1y

This will be a TV movie or some shit on Apple TV guaranteed

1y

@ManualBlinking

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