What will happen during the woolly mammoth de-extinction project by 2050?
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81%
Colossal Biosciences goes out of business without officially canceling the project
60%
Colossal Biosciences announces they are canceling the project
58%
giving "birth" to a living woolly mammoth
45%
mammoth living to >1 years of age
43%
growing an elephant or mammoth fetus in an artificial womb
40%
breeding pair of mammoths
36%
releasing a mammoth into the wild, or a preserve larger than a few acres
36%
creation of a functional artificial womb
Context: Colossal Biosciences wants to de-extinct the woolly mammoth and re-introduce it into the wild. https://colossal.com/mammoth/
My assumption is that all of these achievements would be reported on and easy to verify. But since some of them are prerequisites for others, they could resolve YES without explicit reporting.
I won't bet on this market.
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