Predictions will be locked in starting at 12:01 am on November 5.
The most confident forecast will be the one that has the highest odds of the winning candidate winning. If no candidate reaches 270 electoral votes, the forecast that had the greatest chance of that happening will resolve to "YES". In the case of a tie, the win will be split among the correct answers.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and CNN. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If those outlets fail to come to a consensus, then the candidate sworn in will be considered the winner.
@LasseRunst Other is just the placeholder for other answers that might be added to this market later. For example, if Kalshi opens a market their odds might get added and anyone who bet "YES" on "other" would also automatically get an equivalent number of "YES" shares in the new market that was added. Anyone can add a new forecast, however, forecasts that are not in keeping with the spirit of this market are subject to disqualification by me.
@traders PLEASE TAKE NOTICE:
At Noon EDT tomorrow the market currently labeled "Manifold Overall Candidate Odds" will be renamed "Manifold Overall Party Odds" as the party odds are Manifold's flagship odds forecast not candidate odds
Election Betting Odds will be added at noon EDT tomorrow
Should Kalshi launch a market forecasting the winner of the presidency that will be added after I give 12 hours' notice
As is my practice in my markets, 12 hours notice will be given to allow traders to prepare before any major changes are made unless there is a manifest necessity to make them sooner
@LasseRunst Other is just the placeholder for other answers that might be added to this market later. For example, if Kalshi opens a market their odds might get added and anyone who bet "YES" on "other" would also automatically get an equivalent number of "YES" shares in the new market that was added. Anyone can add a new forecast, however, forecasts that are not in keeping with the spirit of this market are subject to disqualification by me.