This question will be resolved "Yes" if Polymarket requires any form of "know your customer" identification (i.e. proof of identification, proof of residency, proof of funds), any form of location checking (such as being required to share your geographic location), or any significant form of VPN blocking (i.e. blacklisting IP address is associated with VPNs).

Blacklisting only those IP addresses that are on anti-spam databases (the ones checked by https://whatismyipaddress.com/blacklist-check) will not count as significant forms of VPN blocking. This market will be resolved solely based on steps that have actually been carried out. Representations to government agencies or courts that they will engage in the steps outlined above, will not be sufficient to resolve this market. This market will resolve immediately to yes when and if those steps are actually implemented.

As Manifold does not have a platform-wide rule about this insider trading is prohibited. Insider trading is defined below:

For the purposes of this prediction market, insider trading refers to the buying or selling of contracts based on material, non-public information that could impact the outcome of a prediction. This includes using confidential information gained through privileged access or relationships. For example, accessing unpublished earnings reports before they are released is insider trading, even if obtained indirectly. However, making trades based on obscure, but publicly available rumors or expert analysis, while potentially giving an advantage, is not considered insider trading.

• Update 2025-07-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In light of Polymarket's stated intention to create a US version of its platform, the market will resolve Yes if Polymarket takes any additional steps to verify that US citizens are not trading on the version of Polymarket offered in foreign countries.