Will the US implement AI incident reporting requirements by 2028?
11
Ṁ3062028
83%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market will resolve to yes if the US establishes by 2028 a policy requiring certain kinds of AI incident reporting, similar to requirements in aviation or data breach reporting. The policy may allow for many incidents to be kept confidential within a regulatory body. The goal is to enable regulators to track specific types of harms and near-misses from AI systems, allowing them to identify dangers and quickly develop mitigation strategies.
Luke Muehlhauser from Open Philanthropy suggests this idea in his April 2023 post, "12 tentative ideas for US AI policy." This market idea was proposed by Michael Chen.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Will a regulatory body modeled on the FDA regulate AI in the US by the end of 2027?
17% chance
Will the US regulate AI development by end of 2025?
45% chance
Will the US require a license to develop frontier AI models by 2028?
39% chance
Will the US establish a clear AI developer liability framework for AI harms by 2028?
39% chance
Will the US government require AI labs to run safety/alignment evals by 2025?
21% chance
Will the US government enact legislation before 2026 that substantially slows US AI progress?
27% chance
Will more than half the US population actively work with AI daily by 2027?
39% chance
Will the US fund defensive information security R&D for limiting unintended proliferation of dangerous AI models by 2028
53% chance
Will the US implement software export controls for frontier AI models by 2028?
74% chance
By 2028, will an AI safety evaluation become a mandatory requirement for autonomous vehicle manufacturers?
73% chance