Will the US regulate AI development by end of 2025?
Will the US regulate AI development by end of 2025?
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Ṁ8162026
32%
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Resolves YES if the US passes legislation or executive orders with the intent of making it illegal for frontier AI companies to publish models with dangerous capabilities.
For the market to resolve YES, the regulations can be imperfect or flawed, but the spirit and goal of the regulations needs to be to mitigate AI risk.
Will be resolved in the spirit of the question at the time of creation.
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Do you mean frontier AI companies from this Frontier Model Forum list i.e. these 4
Anthropic, Google, Microsoft and OpenAI are launching the Frontier Model Forum, an industry body focused on ensuring safe and responsible development of frontier AI models.
or do you mean any company developing SOTA models?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
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Get started for free! No credit card required.
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There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
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