What will happen during Claude Opus 4.5 Plays Pokemon?
45
Ṁ20k
Jan 30
89%
Stands next to the Key Card again (after step 66,000)
88%
Run ends/is reset because new Claude version is released
82%
Still in Saffron City at 75,000 steps.
75%
Defeats Silph Co Giovanni
57%
Defeats Sabrina
53%
Defeats Koga
50%
Still in Saffron City at 100,000 steps
34%
Visits Safari Zone before Koga's gym
21%
Picks up an item between steps 50,000-75,000
19%
Defeats Gym Leader Giovanni
19%
Stores an item in the PC
19%
Defeats Blaine
18%
Gets HM03 (Surf) from the Safari Zone
14%
Gets the Lapras in Silph Co.
10%
Defeats the champion
10%
Leaves Saffron City without the card key
9%
Finds the Card Key before 75,000 steps
8%
Gets a bicycle
8%
Catches Articuno/Moltres/Zapdos
3%
Gets Eevee

https://www.twitch.tv/claudeplayspokemon

Claude Plays Pokemon is a Twitch stream where the AI chatbot Claude attempts to beat Pokemon Red. Once the game is reset, all remaining answers resolve NO, even if the stream continues with a new game.

I am N/Aing anything that is annoying to resolve. If I have to pore over multiple days of twitch VODs to figure out which way an answer resolves, I am not going to bother.

I will not bet in this market.

Markets for previous runs:

https://manifold.markets/JoshSnider/what-will-happen-during-the-fifth-r

https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-happen-during-the-third-r

https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-happen-during-the-second

https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-happen-during-claude-play-0ZnSuI95EO

#AI
#Technical AI Timelines
#Gaming
#Claude
#Pokemon
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
16 Comments
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How do liquidity subsidies work with a market like this? Is liquidity being constantly removed as answers are added and resolved or is it just constantly becoming more liquid?

@Anthem Same with this.

bought Ṁ100 Answer #LhOIgR08cn NO

@Anthem This should resolve no.

Third visit to the card key at 46,444: https://www.twitch.tv/claudeplayspokemon/clip/HeartlessSplendidUdonANELE-oxM9MRLknR9A_esm

Run ends/is reset because new Claude version is released

@Anthem What's the alternative?

@JoshSnider It could, for example, end because Claude finishes the game, or because the dev decided to update the harness.

sold Ṁ1 Answer #EEuUEQOg2Z NO

Resolves YES.

@JoshSnider

Still in Saffron at 35k can resolve YES

Silph Co completion time market: https://manifold.markets/moobunny/when-will-claudeplayspokemon-defeat?r=bW9vYnVubnk

"Still in Celadon at 30,000" can resolve NO

lmao

@moobunny oh no he went back to celadon after getting the flute 😭

bought Ṁ10 Answer #ZdCsltAtUI YES

@moobunny I don’t think it makes sense to resolve this NO if the game is reset before 30k. I think it should resolve N/A.

@moobunny This should resolve yes.

reposted

Good market!

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