MANIFOLD
BrowseUS ElectionNewsAbout
Will AI come up with a 99.99 percentile quintilizer for most perceptive people in the planet by 2030
Mini
1
Ṁ10
2031
41%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL

#AI
#AI Safety
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
1 Comment
Sort by:

How are we defining “Most Perceptive” for this market?

Related questions

What will be the best AI performance on Humanity's Last Exam by December 31st 2025?
Will AI be smarter than any one human probably around the end of 2025?
14% chance
Will AI surpass human intellect by 2030?
94% chance
What will be the top-3 AI tools in 2040?
Will a single person make a billion dollars utilizing AI tools before 2030?
25% chance
Will we have better-than-human-aggregate forecasting AIs by the end of 2024?
4% chance
The probability of extremely good AGI outcomes eg. rapid human flourishing will be >24% in next AI experts survey
57% chance
Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2030?
86% chance
Will an ai be trained/fine-tuned on Quora by 2035?
92% chance
Will an AI system capable of doing 50% of knowledge job arrive by 2027?
21% chance

Related questions

What will be the best AI performance on Humanity's Last Exam by December 31st 2025?
Will we have better-than-human-aggregate forecasting AIs by the end of 2024?
4% chance
Will AI be smarter than any one human probably around the end of 2025?
14% chance
The probability of extremely good AGI outcomes eg. rapid human flourishing will be >24% in next AI experts survey
57% chance
Will AI surpass human intellect by 2030?
94% chance
Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2030?
86% chance
What will be the top-3 AI tools in 2040?
Will an ai be trained/fine-tuned on Quora by 2035?
92% chance
Will a single person make a billion dollars utilizing AI tools before 2030?
25% chance
Will an AI system capable of doing 50% of knowledge job arrive by 2027?
21% chance
BrowseElectionNewsAbout