I cannot imagine a world where the first woman is elected president, but doesn’t win Time person of the year. She is trading at 43% for the Time question and 53% for the election. You could drive a truck through that inefficiency.

@ClarkBacon it's people hedging that it will be split

Kendrick Lamar isn't an option?

In case you want to bet on 2025

I've got a little on Musk now, partly his recent activities partly because it makes some sense as a "Trump gets elected but we don't want to give it to Trump again" situation.

.2% seemed low given that.

Jack Schlossberg

Love that guy.

I'm surprised Trump is still so low (currently 16%). He has lowered in the election market (currently 45%, was just briefly at 56%), but that implies a ~2/3 chance he's president-elect but not Time POTY. However, the president-elect has been Time POTY every cycle since 2000, and from a historical perspective, Trump's re-election would probably entrench the effects his first term and second campaign had on US culture and conservative politics.

I could see it as a general Trump-fatigue. Even if he wins, I don't expect Times journalists to be super excited to write another story about him. They could potentially look for a different topic that is significant as well, whereas for Kamala they wouldn't accept anything else.

@Jacy While I think he's very likely to be picked if he wins, he might be featured alongside JD Vance, which would resolve the market 50% Trump and 50% Vance.

With little room for exceptions, if Kamala wins, she will be the person of the year. It wouldn’t make sense for Walz to take her place.

They are likely to be named together.

The only time the elected President and VP were ever named together was in 2020, and that was because Kamala Harris held several “firsts” for the office of VP.

Tim Walz is just another guy. There’s nothing making him more notable than historical VPs.

I think that the fact that he's "just another guy" is notable in itself. He is already playing a significant role in shaping the race.

I think the same reasoning that made her share the spot with Biden in 2020 is what makes it have the spot alone in 2024. She is a woman of colour with a historic title.

What are the odds that Harris is named, but not Walz?

In my opinion, quite low. Considering that Harris and Biden were named together in 2020, I could imagine Harris being named alone if her running mate was a boring, irrelevant placeholder. However, Walz has already proven to be a major player in the race, having coined the "weird" strategy, and having reached impressive approval levels rapidly. Having heard the man speak, one can only imagine that his significance in the race will only go up after his debate with Vance.

Therefore I posit that Harris and Walz should be much closer together. Harris is too high at 44% and Walz is too low at 17%.

I can't be sure but I feel you are not accounting for them resolving 50% each if they are both named.

How will this market be resolved if it's a joint person of the year like in 2020?

Nevermind I'm blind

@Joshua since the description refers to your market from last year, can you confirm if 3 people resolves to 1/3 each, eg. Harris, Walz, and Biden? And can they resolve exactly to 1/3 or would they have to do something like 33%/33%/34%? Thanks.

Huh, yeah it should be 1/3 each but I think Manifold would make us round. I'd suggest the 34% go to whoever is listed first by TIME in that scenario.

you can just type "1" in each box and it'll split evenly. no need to do that math

(it always resolves to 100, so it takes your inputs as weights)

Exactly, it can resolve to any ratio of whole numbers.

Oh perfect, yeah it'll resolve evenly in that case.

you can just type "1" in each box and it'll split evenly. no need to do that math

ooh i never knew that, thanks for the tip @Stralor