Which countries or groups will retaliate against Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs by the end of 2025?
Which countries or groups will retaliate against Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs by the end of 2025?
13
Ṁ478Dec 31
1D
1W
1M
ALL
92%
Canada
78%
European Union
58%
Mexico
50%
Japan
36%
India
36%
South Korea
33%
Switzerland
32%
UK
26%
Australia
Resolved
YESChina
"Retaliation" will be interpreted broadly. Any action meant to punish or discourage the tariffs will be considered retaliatory.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Sort by:
Shouldn't Canada resolve YES?
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/09/world/canada/canada-tariffs-business-aid.html
@traders If anyone cares about lost mana on the incorrect EU resolution let me know and I will reimburse you.
@mods Could you please unresolve EU, it was misresolved unfortunately due to personal error. I think N/A'ing it would be appropriate since too much has changed since then and I don't want people to lose mana from my mistake.
bought Ṁ40 China YES6d
China should probably resolve YES already: https://time.com/7274833/china-imposes-tariff-on-imports-of-all-us-products/
What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.Related questions
Donald Trump reduces tariffs on China before 2026?
89% chance
Will either the courts or congress significantly limit trumps ability to impose or negotiate tariffs by the end of 2025
18% chance
Will Trump lower tariffs for China by the end of July 2025?
88% chance
US imposes additional tariffs on third countries in response to China trade war by May 9, 2025
36% chance
What will happen by the end of 2025 under President Trump's tariff policies?
What will happen to Trump's tariff war in 2025? (Add answers)
Congress passes law against Trump's tariffs in 2025?
19% chance
Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" found unlawful by courts and enforcement ceases by EOY 2025?
22% chance
Will the US impose 200%+ tariffs on european alcohol imports by the end of April 2025?
7% chance
Number of countries imposing tariffs in response to U.S. measures by June 30, 2025
-