GPT-5's 50% time horizon, per METR
95
Ṁ220k
Aug 29
0.2%
<1.5h
0.2%
1.5h - 2h
96%
2h - 2.5h
2%
2.5h - 3h
0.3%
3h - 3.5h
0.2%
3.5h - 4h
0.1%
4h - 5h
0.1%
5h - 6h
0.1%
6h - 7h
0.1%
7h - 8h
0%
8h - 9h
0%
9h - 10h
0%
10h - 11h
0%
11h - 12h
0%
>=12h

This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for any GPT-5 model released within a month of the first GPT-5 announcement.

50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time. See METR's "Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks" for the technical definition. Claude 3.7 Sonnet, released in February 2025, was the leading model with a 50% horizon of 59 minutes.

Left bounds inclusive, right bounds exclusive.

Time horizon could vary based on the set of tasks used to measure it, so this market will be based on the time horizon for the most comprehensive set of tasks reported by METR (as of 2025, largely software and engineering tasks). This will be ambiguous if METR stops publishing time horizons across all of their autonomy tasks and only publishes separate results for different subsets; I might N/A in that scenario.

See also:

/Bayesian/gemini-3s-50-time-horizon-per-metr

/Bayesian/gpt5s-50-time-horizon-per-metr (this market)

/Bayesian/grok-5s-50-time-horizon-per-metr

/Bayesian/r2s-50-time-horizon-per-metr

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16 Comments
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bought Ṁ500 2h - 2.5h YES

Just resolve this already

@Vesperstelo but GPT-5 pro might be tested and could have a longer horizon? Resolving now seems slightly silly?

bought Ṁ250 2h - 2.5h NO

woops i was planning to close to cash back the liquidity

or remove liquidity but ig it can't be done

this is kind of cursed, next time i'll do binary

i mean closing is basically the same as removing liquidity, unless you think there's interesting trading remaining (in which case, it'd be low liquidity trading post withdrawal anyways)

bought Ṁ300 2h - 2.5h NO

@Ziddletwix i like that ppl are able to trade with limit orders even when i don't wanna provide liquidity

@Bayesian I’m new to Manifold so don’t follow what happened here? Why is the market not closing?

@LoweLundin

This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for any GPT-5 model released within a month of the first GPT-5 announcement.

I put this trying to avoid cases of some variation of the model getting a much better score than the base version, ie if gpt-5 had released aug 7 but gpt-5 thinking had taken 2 weeks or smth. Likely won’t affect the resolution. I am considering removing that part from the other versions with upcoming models tho

@Bayesian makes sense! Thank you for the quick answer!

Hey @Bayesian I got some nice limit orders you might want to fill because I'm risk-averse and want to cash out.

bought Ṁ100 2h - 2.5h YES

@bens Am I stupid, or wouldn't 2h15m make the market resolve to 2h-2.5h? Why have you bought 2.5h-3h?

@LoweLundin I bought both :)

@bens Thank you, realize now that the "ticker" next to the name only lists a single position

bought Ṁ25 2.5h - 3h YES

System card out with METR scores:
https://cdn.openai.com/pdf/8124a3ce-ab78-4f06-96eb-49ea29ffb52f/gpt5-system-card-aug7.pdf

is gpt-5 really a model like u normally think of one

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