When will OpenAI release an open source model?
➕
Plus
36
Ṁ7310
May 2
3%
Before April 2025
8%
Before May 2025
59%
Before June 2025
62%
Before July 2025
79%
Before August 2025
87%
Before September 2025
86%
Before October 2025
84%
Before November 2025
84%
Before December 2025
90%
Before January 2026

The remaining options of this market will resolve "Yes" if OpenAI publicly releases the weights of a reasoning model (e.g., o1, o3) or a large language model (LLM) that is at least as advanced as GPT-3. When an option's date passes, it will resolve to “No”.

To count as released, the model must be publicly accessible. waitlist signups where only a portion of the general public has access by some date is sufficient for a YES resolution. A model with some commercial or other restrictions is also sufficient, as long as users have access to all the weights.

Modified but similar resolution to this polymarket market.

See also:

/Bayesian/when-will-openai-announce-o4

/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-gpt45-ULpyUuqd2L

/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-an-open-so (this market)

/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-r2

/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-v4

/Bayesian/when-will-xai-release-grok-4

  • Update 2025-04-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Applicable Models:

    • Reasoning models that are publicly released with their weights.

    • Large Language Models (LLMs) that are better than GPT-3.

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bought Ṁ70 Before April 2025 NO

"Before April 2025" resolves NO.

@traders for more speculation on the new open weight model sam altman talked about today, see

filled a Ṁ100 Before April 2025 NO at 1.0% order

Which models will be recognized? As far as I know, Whisper is also an open-source model. Does this count?

@TongShen reasoning models or LLM better than gpt3 count

at least if im reading the description right. Ultimately the description resolution criteria is the ground truth

sold Ṁ30 Before May 2025 NO