Will trump issue an endorsement in the NYC Mayor race? Vague positive or negative statements don't count, I'll subjectively decide if it's an endorsement or not and will not participate in this market.
If he endorses two candidates I'll resolve to whichever one is more official sounding, like explicitly using the word endorsement or a press release over an offhand comment.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/06/nyregion/trump-nyc-mayor-cuomo-adams-mamdani.html
Update 2025-11-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated that the statement in the linked Bluesky post is considered a "vague positive statement" and does not count as an endorsement for resolution purposes.
Update 2025-11-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that Trump's statement about the NYC mayor race is considered a "vague positive statement" and not an endorsement because it is primarily a negative statement about Mamdani rather than a positive statement about Cuomo.
Update 2025-11-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is evaluating whether Trump's statement constitutes an endorsement by considering whether serious sources (beyond the Mamdani campaign) are calling it an endorsement. The creator notes that the New York Times article deliberately avoided using the word "endorsement."
Update 2025-11-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated that Trump's Truth Social post stating "You must vote for him" (referring to a candidate) constitutes an endorsement. The creator will resolve YES if this is Trump's last statement on the subject. The creator notes that the explicit directive to vote, combined with it being a second statement on the race, distinguishes it from earlier vague statements.
Update 2025-11-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that Trump's second statement containing "You must vote for him" (referring to Cuomo) is distinctly farther towards endorsement. The explicit directive to vote, combined with it being a second statement on the race (making the first statement seem less like random commentary), distinguishes it from earlier vague statements.
@ItsMe Trump said a followup. Even if the prior statement wasn't an endorsement, then this one must be.
"Whether you personally like Andrew Cuomo or not, you really have no choice. You must vote for him, and hope he does a fantastic job. He is capable of it, Mamdani is not!"
@FecalAbhuman I think it's mostly a reiteration of what he said in the interview, in that he still implies he doesn't like Cuomo. If it was my market I would count both of them as endorsements, but it doesn't clearly meet the criteria that the creator already laid out
@ItsMe I commented down below, but I think this one is distinctly farther towards endorsement.
The difference is the phrase "You must vote for him" as well as the fact that it's a second data point makes the first one seem less like trump's mushy brain free associating.
@SpaceCan this is an endorsement in my book. I'll resolve yes if it's the last word on the subject.
The difference here is the phrase "You must vote for him" as well as the fact that it's a second data point makes the first one seem less like trump's mushy brain free associating
https://bsky.app/profile/aprilglick.bsky.social/post/3m4oxfl2cus25
Fwiw, I don't think this is an endorsement. I am putting this in "vague positive statement"
@BenM I should say, this alone doesn't seem to be enough to me. Only mamdani is calling this an endorsement at this point.
@BenM perhaps it can be considered an endorsement against Mamdani, and so therefore Cuomo and Sliwa would both resolve 50%?
Anyways does Trump even consider Sliwa a serious candidate? He's not endorsing him, and is instead saying the choice is between a "bad Democrat" and a "communist". I think there's an argument that he's endorsing just Cuomo here.
@FecalAbhuman I think the fact that it's mostly a negative statement about mamdani and not a positive statement about Cuomo is why I'm leaning against calling it an endorsement.
@BenM then this is really whether choosing a less-bad option counts as an endorsement. I think it should, as endorsement isn't necessarily the same as actually agreeing. Perhaps a poll should be done?
@BenM I haven't been paying attention to the coverage since last night. Is anyone serious other than the mamdani campaign calling it an endorsement? I saw a nytimes article that very deliberately avoided that word