the Florida Supreme Court voted to ban abortion, but also cleared a path for a ballot proposition that would guarantee abortion rights in the state constitution. According to a recent poll, the ballot proposition has 62% support (it needs 60% to pass).

The Biden campaign released a memo on the same day (today) characterizing Florida as “winnable” because of political momentum in the state over the abortion issue.

Meanwhile Trump, who has won Florida in two presidential elections, has said he supports an abortion ban, albeit not as strict as the one currently in effect, but also that he respects states’ rights, and presumably a ballot proposition.

Market closes just before the 2026 midterms.

This market resolves NA if Trump doesn’t win.

Sources:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/florida-supreme-court-abortion-rights-ballot-measure-rcna142568

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/biden-campaign-florida-winnable-2024-rcna145863

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/01/florida-abortion-desantis-trump-00150024

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