Data is currently at
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.csv
or
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
(or such updated location for this Gistemp v4 LOTI data)
January 2024 might show as 124 in hundredths of a degree C, this is +1.24C above the 1951-1980 base period. If it shows as 1.22 then it is in degrees i.e. 1.22C. Same logic/interpretation as this will be applied.
If the version or base period changes then I will consult with traders over what is best way for any such change to have least effect on betting positions or consider N/A if it is unclear what the sensible least effect resolution should be.
Numbers expected to be displayed to hundredth of a degree. The extra digit used here is to ensure understanding that +1.20C resolves to an exceed 1.195C option.
Resolves per first update seen by me or posted as long, as there is no reason to think data shown is in error. If there is reason to think there may be an error then resolution will be delayed at least 24 hours. Minor later update should not cause a need to re-resolve.
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ2,745 | |
| 2 | Ṁ727 | |
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| 5 | Ṁ56 |
From the gistemp page:
News and Updates
September 11, 2025: The August 2025 report from Maliye Karmakuly seemed inconsistent with history and its neighbors, off by about 12 °C. This was confirmed by looking at other sources. Inspecting the whole time series showed that the same faulty report was also submitted for June 2024 and June 2025, where it was less noticeable, being off by about 3-4 °C. All 3 reports were omitted from our analysis. This was reported to NCEI.
September 11, 2025: A preliminary release of the August GISTEMPv4 analysis has been posted. However, as data are sparse for some regions (e.g., eastern and southern Africa), we will post an updated analysis next week if sufficient missing data are received then.
==
This is a bit weird of them. They say they will let it slip a few days ago as they are waiting on new data, then they publish it anyway despite missing quite a bit of land obs. I don't know if we should actually consider this month's release preliminary or not. Same for Polymarket. Oh well...
More interesting is the downard correction for July which went down to 1.01 this month from 1.03 previously; this month and last month my predictions from ERA5 were under by quite a bit, but under the new release, the error should be roughly only -0.03 (as my ERA5 prediction was 0.984, so it wasn't as far off as it seemed previously).
However given for August my prediction from ERA5 was 1.069 C, this is too big a difference for me from the current data of 1.14C. Either the simple monthly ERA5->GISTEMP linear model I use needs to be thrown out as I thought it might last month, or this August data needs to be downward revised quite a bit again next week/month or whenever the final data comes in.
@parhizj Perhaps I should have waited before resolving.
I will try to keep an eye on it. Do you think I should ask mods to unresolve so trading can continue?
@ChristopherRandles No, I think based on the normal way you usually resolve this, this was the correct resolution. As it is "official" but sort of semi-preliminary. It's not clear how much the Africa data and Antarctic data will drop the temps.
edit: I blame gistemp for changing their mind. Last year a release was delayed for weeks because of a hurricane, so I don't understand the reason why they released before they had all the data.
@parhizj it’s ok it was one day with 1.025+ later it dropped to 1.01, it cause they post it a bit early 8th August, also if we think we always bet on preliminary one day result. That’s some random problem here but it’s okay for interest.
@ChristopherRandles No, it obviously needs to resolve. All real betting markets on GISTEMP (Polymarket) and NOAA (Kalshi) resolved despite the missing NCEI/GHCN data. Because the rules are clear, and same applies to our markets.
@aenews You recall right. I'm just saying there is already precedent for delaying the release when they lack data.
@parhizj Yeah but it's moot because in that case there were no files they could use even if they wanted. In other cases, they've only delayed by at most a few days and never longer. This is just a strange situation, and they decided to do this preliminary release. Data is never even semi-final before the next month anyways (and changes daily).
Figured because even yesterday they didn't change the scheduled release. At least they recognize huge areas are missing, would be incompetent if they had automatically released without comment.
NCEI is doing an upgrade on its systems... After writing a tool to look at the land data output from ghcnm ( below ) I speculate some of the GHCNm data might be late/missing because other GHCN products are mentioned (GHCNh) in this...
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/operating-system-upgrade-outage
There is no news on the gistemp schedule page whether the release will be delayed or not.
The following data requires some subtle interpretation since it is landboxes (not ocean ones mixed, so it includes boxes that largely belong to the ocean), and requires comparison between images; can't take the contribution and their changes at face value. Because of this it's possible to jump to the wrong conclusion about how to interpret the changes.
The "reference" is always the most recent available ghcnm run I did for that month (rather than the earliest).
For example, when green marked area disappears from one image to the next indicates that between these two runs new data has come in there).
Notable changes between the 3rd and the 4th (ghcnm product date):
Data from Australia became available.
Temps from the region over Eritrea were increased.
There is still quite a bit of land data missing (the pink over land) (especially Africa and portions of the Arctic circle in the western hemisphere) when compared to some previous months that I do have data for (although its possible they may all come in within a few days?) but it seems anomalous..
Here is the 4th day of the month (ghcnm product date) from the previous months that I do have data for for comparison.. (compare pink over land from August to any pink/green over land in below)
No pink over land. Only in one of the images (March) does some of the area become available later (and its much less than whats missing presently from August data)...
@parhizj good analysis, need to wait some time to know(2-3 runs more), maybe rest of data will come soon, but it can be hotter if it come up, but as I know their updates only affect others datasets and some server changes
News and Updates
September 8, 2025: Release of the August GISTEMPv4 analysis has been postponed to September 11, and may slip further due to delays in receiving station data for several regions.
No new data that was previously missing. Looks likely release will be pushed back further.
@aenews *sigh* Another month with big losses seems inevitable....
going to keep increasing the stakes since that higher bin was 2% in my original model... it seems so unlikely despite it only being the 5th...
@aenews Yeah, after this month my sample size will have gone up to 8 total months where I have daily runs so I'll be able to see how abnormal it is...