There seems to be a small but significant trend of people from the Rationalist movement eventually converting to Christianity, despite how diametrically opposed their previous beliefs seemed to any sort of religious fideism. This market will resolve as YES if at any time before January 1st, 2030, Scott Alexander publicly announces conversion to self-identified Christianity (i.e. even if it's a sect like JW or Mormonism where some people doubt if they're "real Christians," if he identifies as Christian, it counts).
You all know he's Jewish right? And is very knowledgeable about Judaism at that. Even for Jews with little/no Jewish affiliation, converting to Christianity is very looked down on. "Your ancestors lived through centuries of persecution, pogroms, attempted forced conversion, and genocide, so that you could just give up your heritage?"
He's absolutely not converting. And I have thousands of mana worth of limit orders saying as much.
@ValentinGolev There's probably a special level of hell for people who convert to Christianity to win at prediction markets.
@Dfe2f A jester might argue that Christianity explicitly commands people to "count up the cost" and consider the expected value of their conversion before making their choice...