https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1826340260735058400
This market is specifically on whom the above tweet is referring to, regardless of whether the interview occurs.
https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/what-is-man-that-thou-art-mindful possibly should resolve given the latest ACX post?
@FrederickNorris what odds would you bet on that? ("we will learn the identity of this guest within e.g. 2 years")
@Ziddletwix The odds this guy says, oh yeah, you know that twt I made last year, and nothing ever came of it, I was talking about Person X? Minimal. It makes all of his guests since then seem less important, and underscores that "big guests" back out on him. Zero reason for him to dredge this up.
@FrederickNorris that's one scenario for how we learn the identity—several people (e.g. SG below) say they know the identity, but for obvious reasons won't divulge atm. it seems very far from certain to me that that wouldn't get revealed in the next ~2y
@Ziddletwix but people didn’t bet on this thinking their mana would be held up for two years. Because those who know won’t say, even if (allegedly) they know, then for all intents and purposes we won’t know. So let’s put an end to this. Otherwise we’re just waiting for people who said they wouldn’t tell us to tell us.
@FrederickNorris You can make some mana here: https://manifold.markets/Lorenzo/will-the-who-is-dwarkeshs-upcoming
@Ziddletwix The people who knew all along, but were asked not to disclose, are going to be released from their vow why?
@bens He wasn't at Manifest this year 😢 .
I guess now might be an amusing time to reveal that I've known who the guest was all along and that Dwarkesh asked me not to say...