Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, a formal peace agreement is signed between Israel and Palestinian representatives, leading to a cessation of hostilities and the establishment of diplomatic relations. The agreement must be publicly acknowledged by both parties and reported by reputable news organizations such as Reuters, Associated Press, or the United Nations. If no such agreement is reached by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No".
Background
The Israel-Palestine conflict has persisted for decades, characterized by intermittent periods of violence and attempts at peace negotiations. In early 2025, a ceasefire was brokered between Israel and Hamas, involving phased exchanges of hostages and prisoners, as well as plans for humanitarian aid and reconstruction in Gaza. However, this ceasefire was disrupted in March 2025 when Israel launched airstrikes on Gaza, effectively ending the truce. (en.wikipedia.org)
Subsequent efforts to revive peace talks have included international conferences and proposals. Notably, in July 2025, an international conference co-hosted by France and Saudi Arabia convened at the United Nations to advocate for a two-state solution. The conference aimed to develop a framework addressing the disarmament of Hamas, the release of hostages, the reform of the Palestinian Authority, and post-conflict planning. (en.wikipedia.org)
Considerations
International Recognition: Several Western countries, including France, have announced plans to recognize the State of Palestine, potentially influencing the dynamics of peace negotiations. (diplomatie.gouv.fr)
U.S. Position: The United States has expressed opposition to unilateral recognition of Palestinian statehood and has called on countries to refrain from attending conferences that it deems hostile toward Israel. (en.wikipedia.org)
Regional Proposals: Alternative peace initiatives have emerged, such as the "Emirate of Hebron" proposal by local sheikhs seeking to establish independent governance separate from the Palestinian Authority, indicating internal divisions and varied approaches to resolving the conflict. (en.wikipedia.org)
Traders should monitor developments in diplomatic relations, international recognition efforts, and regional proposals, as these factors may significantly impact the likelihood of a formal peace agreement being reached before the end of 2025.
@KJW_01294 this market is about “signature of peace”, not about “how long to keep peace”
There are other markets with additional requests of 3 days, 1 week, 90 days, etc without hostilities. I can find you the links if you want to bet on them.
@KJW_01294 but you are rigth. When this is not specified, how long we have to wait to say hostilities has ceassed and the deal being broken vs. never ceased at all? One hour? One day?
at least this is how I understood it, but the author of the question, @EmaiDeca is the one to clarify questions about resolution if we have a disagreement
@KJW_01294 while the "cessation of hostilities" is somehow likely (at least for a short period), the "establishment of diplomatic relations" seems much harder to get, in my view. I don't think the current indirect conversations through mediators, while they don't recognize each other as state, can qualify as "established diplomatic relations".
we already have the agreement signed by Israel and Hamas: "the war will immediately end..."
https://www-kan-org-il.translate.goog/content/kan-news/politic/958603/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=gl&_x_tr_pto=wapp