Will Israel attempt to free any living hostages in Gaza through a military operation before the end of 2025?
Will Israel attempt to free any living hostages in Gaza through a military operation before the end of 2025?
6
Ṁ169
2026
68%
chance

This market will resolve as YES if:

  • Israel conducts a military operation with the explicit purpose of freeing living hostages in Gaza before December 31, 2025

  • The operation is reported by major news outlets (such as AP, Reuters, BBC, CNN, WSJ, New York Times, etc.) before the market closes

  • Update 2025-02-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Shooting Incidents:

    • Intent Requirement: An operation must be explicitly directed at freeing hostages. Merely shooting the hostages outside of such an operation does not qualify.

    • Collateral Impact: If hostages are shot during an operation whose explicit purpose is to free them, that incident still meets the resolution criteria.

#World
#🇮🇱 Israel
#Arab-Israeli Conflict
#Middle East
#🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict
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1mo

Will shooting the hostages count as attempting to free them? https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/16/israeli-hostages-mistakenly-killed-in-gaza-were-had-a-white-flag-official

1mo

@Samaritan It wouldn’t count in cases like this where it isn’t not part of an operation specifically directed at recovering hostages. If hostages are shot during an attempt to free them, then yes.

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