All the options are priced separately. For traders who aren't familiar: if we knew the exact future, the total of all options would sum to 600% (proper pricing would be: the 6 survivors will be 100% each and the 6 to be out first will be 0%).

As these guys lose power, the first 6 to lose power (by any means, retirement, leaving office, etc) will have their price resolved to 0%. When there are only 6 left, the remaining ones will have their price resolved to 100%.

Note that to lose power they have to really have stepped down from their current job (or taken a less significant, same country job), not just lost an election. i.e. if there is a gap then they aren't "out" until they actually don't have the power. Quitting being president and then moving on to being an ambassador or head of supreme court while someone else takes over the big job is considered being "out".

For medical issues, (if the day-to-day operations of the country are handed to someone else for at least 7 days, or the leader has disappeared for at least 30 days), and there is clear indication & belief by the economist magazine that the person is dead or gone, then they will be considered "out".

Note: Trump is considered to be the US president now, even though he's not quite inaugurated yet, for the purpose of deciding this market. i.e. if he fails to be inaugurated or is, but then stops being president, he'll be "out".

Note, that losing power but then being reinstated >7 days later either by coup or reelection or other, still means you were "out".

Deadline will be extended if necessary.

• Update 2025-02-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Effective Pause in Resolution

  • Man Behind the Throne Allegations: If credible allegations arise that suggest a politician is effectively a behind‐the-scenes decision-maker (similar to the early Putin era), the resolution process will be paused until it is clear when that politician should be considered out.