Which political party wins the US presidency in 2028?
Which political party wins the US presidency in 2028?
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67
Ṁ27k
2028
58%
Democratic Party
41%
Republican Party
1.3%
Other Party

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#2028 US presidential election
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2mo

Arb: https://manifold.markets/predyx_markets/which-wing-will-win-the-us-presiden

4mo

The United States has had 20 presidential elections in the post WW2 era, and in 45% of those the election was won by the same party who had won it 4 years earlier. So the GOP's chance of holding onto the White House is right in line with historical trends.

...which I think those "threat to democracy" people are out to lunch. Nobody would place a 50-50 bet that the CCP would lose control of China by 2028. Nobody would bet even odds that an anti-Putin party will control Russia in 4 years. The fact that this market and Kalshi, are giving GOP a 51% chance of losing in 2028 means the two-party system we've had for 150 years is still firmly in place.

filled a Ṁ11 Democratic Party NO at 66% order5mo

Arbitrage opportunity: https://manifold.markets/TreyMarez/will-a-democrat-win-the-2028-presid-Ry6NpAdLIl

5mo

Which political party wins the US presidency in 2032?

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