Join and get verified by mid 2025 June 30.
p/p means past or present although in general most are eternal such as "attendee of..." Means ever
List of Nobels in a Field: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prizes_known_as_the_Nobel_or_the_highest_honors_of_a_field?wprov=sfla1
List of dynastic orders:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dynastic_order?wprov=sfla1
Applies regardless of when they join but it must really be them. So you can mine history too. They don't have to be active but must at least place one bet or make one market. Also if they join, get verified, go inactive then attain the achievement it counts.
Update 2025-07-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will resolve sub-markets to NO if proof of a person joining and being verified is not submitted within a couple of days after the market's closure. The burden of proof is on traders.
๐ Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | แน110 | |
| 2 | แน57 | |
| 3 | แน52 | |
| 4 | แน48 | |
| 5 | แน47 |
@Ernie Irrelevant for the market, but grandson of a ([edit] past) holder of a Guinness world record checking in.
@traders market time is up, but some sub markets are still open over 50% with no proof submitted. They're going to be resolved zero unless a submission shows up within a couple days so FYI
@Ernie Am I correct in interpreting this as Armando's Science paper authorship not checking out?
I don't know what p/p means but I do know someone on Manifold who holds a guinness world record
Edit: p/p means past or present... as it says in the description
Can't believe no one has pointed out that this isn't verifiable except in-group.
ETA elite yes, global yes, "achievers" arguable. Would have been simpler to put "Any Whiffenpoof".
@ClubmasterTransparent how do we know the bushes were skull and bones? Or is it still not really confirmed?
@jskf Nobody really tried to make money here yet. If you post a claim I'll check and can resolve immediately
https://manifold.markets/CGPGrey
Verified, has over 100M YouTube views.
In the description it says they can join at any time, but the presence of answers like this at such a low percentage makes me think I am misunderstanding the question. What am I missing?
https://manifold.markets/LexFridman
Verified and has over 1M Twitter followers, but some people claim it isn't really him.
https://manifold.markets/LawrenceLessig
https://publicintelligence.net/2013-bilderberg-meeting-participant-list/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Bilderberg_Conference
He has created 1 question, is verified, and joined after this question was created.
@Eliza ๐ค , he joined 1 hour after this question was created.
I assume this question only counts people who joined the site after the question was created?