1GW of solar power in Earth orbit by EOY 2031?
23
Ṁ2455
2031
45%
chance

Total solar power available, across all satellites from all operators. Nameplate capacity, not actual usage.

Based on industry reports and my best efforts at research; suggestions for reliable sources are welcome, hopefully there will be a clean resolution source we can track well before resolution time. Presumably some classified satellites will be hard to get data on; best guesses will be used if they matter.

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It's actually pretty hard to estimate. I wasn't able to find a current figure anywhere

@ProjectVictory gpt-5-pro reckons 40% chance and currently 200-250MW in orbit: https://imgur.com/a/uhqPDX1

That's only like a couple square kilometers of panels
Even with existing, somewhat heavier space panels (2kg per square meter) you are looking at a few kilotons at most; get fancy and that could drop an order of magnitude
I'd put the over/under for this in 2029

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