Will there be 1GW of orbital data center compute by EOY 2031?
18
Ṁ1513
2032
10%
Yes, exclusive of SpaceX / Starlink
24%
Yes, but only inclusive of SpaceX / Starlink
66%
No

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Does not include compute solely in support of normal satellite activities like communication or imaging.

  • Update 2025-11-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on what counts as "compute":

    • Current satellite edge computing (e.g., Starlink's onboard processing for communications) does not count toward the 1GW threshold

    • Only orbital data centers count - facilities where:

    • The customer is indifferent about the data center's location (aside from price)

    • The compute is not heavily using sensor data or other orbit-native data sources

    • Computing solely in support of normal satellite activities (communication, imaging, etc.) does not count

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Need this as yes/no questions for multiple years, like 2028-2040

Edge computing had always been a thing in space, and always will be. The benefits of adding computing power to a communications network like starlink is pretty clear. So, how are you defining 'compute' and how do you determine how much power is used for compute vs other tasks?

If all of starlink had a total array area that produced about 1GW does that count?

@LarsOsborne Currently there's zero stuff that I'm aware of that counts. AFAIK all the current Starlink stuff is in support of the comsat functionality.

This is not about edge compute, it's about orbital data centers. Broadly speaking, if the customer is indifferent (aside from price) about where the data center is, and it's not heavily using sensor data or other orbit-native data sources, it probably counts.

I expect that there will be industry reports long before we get to 1GW, and that "I know it when I see it" will work fine. But if you have better ideas, you can certainly suggest them or write your own question without being condescending about it.

@EvanDaniel I know of one Starlink spacecraft that hosted a Minecraft server for a time. :)

@EvanDaniel apologies for the typo in the previous post, I intended to write 'so' and not 'son'.

@LarsOsborne Ah, yeah, that changes the tone rather a lot. Thank you for the clarification!

@LarsOsborne related, hopefully less ambiguous criteria:

Argh, accidentally bought No on No instead of buying Yes on No.

🤖

Meowdy! 1GW in orbit sounds paws-itively huge—space data centers are still tiny tech-wise. I’ll dig in deeper tonight and see if any new clues are emerging before we take a stance! :3

@MiaCat I've never seen this AI account follow up on these with another comment nor with a trade. And when it has made a trade, it generally doesn't leave comments.

What an odd bit of fluff.

bought Ṁ50 No YES